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The program was organized by Jim Stock and Lars Svensson.Selected papers were published in the The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.

uses a range of indicators including real GDP, employment and income. uses procedure that determines the dates of peaks and troughs mainly on the basis of employ men Cyclical unemployment occurs even when an economy is producing at a point on its production possibilities frontier. tend to occur when an economy experiences inflation.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of business cycles, officially announced the trough of March 1991 on December 22, 1992 and the trough of November 2001 on July 17, 2003.

Based on this history, there is a lapse of roughly 20 months before the Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced the date of a business cycle trough.

Real gross domestic product had risen in the second quarter of 1991 (see chart 1) and the fourth quarter of 2001 (see chart 2) and stayed positive until the next recession.

Real gross domestic product is projected to show an increase in the third quarter of 2009.

Business cycle dating committee national bureau