Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions.This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.This divergence has led committee members to express different views of where the economy is in the business cycle.
The committee will need to balance the mid-year date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.
Expansions have historically exceeded previous highs in economic growth trends if capitalist fundamentals applied within regulatory guidelines govern the markets.
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One is unimpressive, but not strongly at odds with a recovery.
The two remaining indicators imply that the economy may still be in recession.